- After a slow start to the season, Elo and Cortana have caught fire in recent weeks.
- The two models have correctly picked 63% of the games this season, but went a combined 23-3 in Week 8.
The NFL season is now in Week 9, and after a slow start to the season the computers picking the winners for every game have suddenly caught fire.
We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
The two models had strong performances in Week 8. Cortana went 12-1 and is now 24-4 over the last two weeks. It is now tied with Elo, who also had a strong week, going 11-2. The two models are now both 75-44 overall (63%).
Here are the picks for Week 9, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
Thursday
- Buffalo Bills (-3) at New York Jets
Sunday
- Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
- Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at New York Giants — GIANTS (Elo 51%), RAMS (Cortana 64%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)
- Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Carolina Panthers — FALCONS (Elo 51%), PANTHERS (Cortana 55%)
- Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-12.5)
- Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
- Arizona Cardinals (-2) at San Francisco 49ers
- Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
- Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (-1) — CHIEFS (Elo 52%), COWBOYS (Cortana 53%)
- Oakland Raiders (-3) at Miami Dolphins — DOLPHINS (Elo 60%), RAIDERS (Cortana 66%)
Monday
- Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers — PACKERS (Elo 66%), LIONS (Cortana 60%)